US Cocaine Seizure Effectiveness Rate, 2016-2020

"Methodology and Limitations

"Seizure data are obtained from OFO administrative records and is considered reliable. Estimates of the total cocaine flow are provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).¹⁵ The U.S. Government does not have an estimate of the share of the total cocaine flow that passes through land POEs, but the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency’s National Drug Threat Assessment states that the Southwest Border remains the key entry point for the majority of the cocaine entering the United States. The DIA estimate is based on a U.S. Government estimate of cocaine departing South America towards the United States, and additionally incorporates estimates of cocaine movement, cocaine production, and U.S. consumption derived from various U.S. Government agencies. The estimated amount of cocaine available to enter the United States (estimated flow in Table 15) is derived by finding the difference between the estimated amount of cocaine departing South America toward the United States and the sum of documented cocaine removals, consumption in the Transit Zone, and documented departures from the Transit Zone towards non-United States destinations.

"Available Data and Discussion

"Total seizures dropped to 19,000 kilograms in 2019, the lowest in the 2016-2020 period and down 35 percent from the 2016 to 2019 average. Land seizures dropped to 7,000 kilograms in 2019, the lowest in the period and down 18 percent from the 2016 to 2019 average. Estimated flow rose to 905,000 kilograms, but was still down 15 percent from the 2016 to 2019 average. The drop in total seizures and rise in estimated flows resulted in the seizure effectiveness rate halving from the previous year to 2.1 percent."