Drug Interdiction

Interdiction efforts intercept 10-15% of the heroin and 30% of the cocaine. Drug traffickers earn gross profit margins of up to 300%. At least 75% of international drug shipments would need to be intercepted to substantially reduce the profitability of drug trafficking.

"Global opiate seizures, expressed in heroin equivalents, increased 14% to 142 mt in 2006. Opiates seizures have grown an average of 9% per year over the last decade, exceeding growth in global opium production. The global interception rate for opiates rose from 13% in 1996 to 23% in 2006."

"The total area under opium cultivation rose to 235,700 ha in 2007. This increase of 17% from 2006 puts global cultivation at just about the same level, though still marginally lower, than the 238,000 ha recorded in 1998. Although there was some growth in South-East Asian poppy cultivation, the global increase was almost entirely due to the 17% expansion of cultivation in Afghanistan, which is now 193,000 ha. With Afghanistan accounting for 82% of world opium cultivation, the proportion of South-East Asian expansion in overall cultivation was small. It is not unimportant, however, as it reverses six straight years of decline."

"Cocaine seizures (at street purity levels) fell 6%, from their record high of 750 mt in 2005, to 706 mt in 2006, reversing the previous upward trend. Global cocaine seizures are twice as high as they were a decade ago, which is impressive given the overall stability in cocaine production over the same period. This is thought to be the result of greater efficiency in law enforcement services and improved sharing of intelligence information, both of which enable seizures to be made before the cocaine reaches its final destination.
"The global cocaine interception rate remains high
"As a result, the calculated global cocaine interception rate remained near 42% in 2006, up from 29% in 1998. A portion of this increase is due to improvements in law enforcement. However, a small portion may also be due to the double counting of seizures when more than one law enforcement agency is involved (e.g. customs and police). The potential for double counting becomes greater when different countries work together. The global interception rate was calculated on the basis of a global cocaine production of 984 metric mt in 2006 and global seizures of 706 metric mt at street purity, which – given a global average cocaine purity of 59% in 2006 (as reported by member states to UNODC in the annual reports questionnaire) - would be equivalent to pure cocaine seizures of some 416 metric mt. and report the same seizure(s). As cooperation among the various law enforcement agencies has increased in recent years, the likelihood of double counting of cocaine seizures increased as well."

"In 2007, the total area under coca cultivation in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru rose to its highest level since 2001. The 16% year-on-year increase brought the total area under cultivation to 181,600 ha. The increase itself was led by a 27% increase in the area under cultivation in Colombia, followed by smaller increases of 5% and 4% in Bolivia and Peru respectively. Despite these recent increases, the global area under coca cultivation continues to be lower than in the 1990s and 18% below the level recorded in 2000 (221,300 ha).
"Fifty-five per cent of coca bush was cultivated in Colombia, followed by Peru (30%) and Bolivia (16%). In 2007, Colombia remained the world’s largest coca cultivating country with 99,000 ha of coca bush, an increase of 27%, or 21,000 ha, over 2006."

"Despite the large increase in area under coca cultivation recorded in Colombia, low yields seemed to limit production, keeping the global potential production of cocaine fairly stable. In 2007, global potential production of cocaine reached 994 mt, slightly above the 984 mt recorded for 2006. Of this total, 600 mt were produced in Colombia, 290 mt in Peru and 104 mt in Bolivia."

"Globally, most cocaine is seized in the Americas (81%). South America, where most cocaine is manufactured, accounted for 45% of global seizures in 2006. North America, the world’s largest cocaine market, accounted for 24%. Central America and the Caribbean, which are major transit regions, accounted for 11 % of global seizures.
"The only large market outside of the Americas is Europe. Seventeen per cent of global cocaine seizures were made in Europe in 2006, and 99 % of these were made in West and Central Europe.
"The rest of the world was responsible for about 2% of global seizures and more than 90% of these were reported by countries in Africa."

"The world's main cocaine trafficking routes continue to run from the Andean region, notably Colombia, to the United States. Frequently quoted estimates among enforcement agencies in recent years suggested that some 450 mt of cocaine (46% of production in 2006) may be destined for markets in North America (trend falling) and some 250 mt (25% of production) for markets in Europe (trend rising). Most of the remainder is seized in the coca producing countries (215 mt of cocaine base and salt in 2006, or less than 170 mt expressed in pure cocaine) or consumed in South America.
"The US 'Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement' (IACM) assumes higher shipment figures of cocaine towards North America. Estimates by the IACM suggest that between 530 and 710 mt of cocaine may have departed South America towards the United States in 2006. Out of this amount some 90% is thought to have transited the Mexico-Central America Corridor in 2006. The IACM assumes that 66% of the cocaine departing South America towards the USA in 2006 moved through the Eastern Pacific Vector, more than a year earlier (50%)."

In 2004 a kilogram of heroin no. 3 in Pakistan typically sold for an average of $2,520; a kilogram of heroin no. 4 typically sold for $4,076 that year. In Afghanistan, a kilogram of heroin no. 3 typically sold for $1,600 and a kilogram of heroin no. 4 typically sold for $4,000. In Colombia, a kilogram of heroin no. 4 typically sold for $10,149. In the US in 2004, a kilogram of heroin no. 4 cost an average of $66,250.

According to the US Office of National Drug Control Policy, the cost of heroin at the retail level declined from an average estimated $1,974.49 per gram in 1981 to $361.95 per gram in 2003. At the wholesale level, the drop went from $1,007.60 per gram in 1981 to $139.22 per gram in 2003. The average purity of heroin on the US market increased in that time as well, going at the retail level from an average of 11% in 1981 to an average 32% in 2003, and at the wholesale level from an average 12% in 1981 to an average 46% in 2003.

"The most striking new trend in cocaine trafficking in recent years has been the rising importance of Africa, notably of West and Central Africa, as a transit area for cocaine shipments to Europe. Seizures made in Africa rose from less than 1 mt over the 1998-2002 period to 15 mt in 2006. Most of the increase took place in 2006. The largest African cocaine seizures were reported by Nigeria, followed by Ghana, South Africa, Morocco and Cap Verde in 2006. In addition, Guinea-Bissau emerged in recent years as an important cocaine trafficking hub. Out of the 33 African countries that provided seizure statistics in 2006 to UNODC, 25 African countries, or 76%, reported seizures of cocaine, up from 34% in 1990.
"African cocaine seizures are now equivalent to 2.1% of the global total, up from 0.3% in 2005 and 0.1% in 2000. Since law enforcement in Africa is hampered by a lack of resources and other important factors, this marked increase may not fully reflect the actual trafficking flows through the region."

"Mexico is the main transit country of cocaine shipments to North America. Trafficking to Mexico and further on to the United States declined, however, in 2006 and 2007. About 52% of cocaine was trafficked to Mexico by sea in 2006, another 18% by land from Central America (Guatemala and Belize) and 30% by air. These figures suggest that 2006 saw a decline in trafficking by sea and by land and – in relative terms – an increase in trafficking by air as compared to a year earlier. Aircrafts often bring cocaine into Mexico from Venezuela, Colombia and from countries in Central America, notably Guatemala. Important entry points for cocaine into Mexico by sea continue to be the Pacific region and the peninsula of Yukatan on the Atlantic coast. From there, the drug is usually transported by land northwards. In volume terms, most cocaine shipments are by sea. In terms of cases, most seizures are for deliveries by land. About 90% of the cocaine is destined for the USA, 7% is destined for Europe (often by air to Spain, Belgium, Germany, France and Italy) and 3% is for local consumption."

"The US authorities estimate that around 90% of the cocaine, which entered their country in 2006, transited the Mexico-Central America corridor. The amounts of cocaine trafficked into the United States declined, however, in 2006 and this trend became more pronounced in 2007 as Mexican authorities stepped up efforts to fight the drug cartels operating on their territory, which also increased the level of cocaine related violence in Mexico. US cocaine seizures along the country’s southern border declined by 20% over the first two quarters of 2007 on a year earlier and by almost 40% in the second quarter of 2007, as compared to the second quarter of 2006. The main entry point of cocaine into the United States continues to be the common border of Mexico with southern Texas (accounting for a third of all seizures along the border with Mexico in 2006), followed by the border with southern California (18%)."

"As far as trafficking is concerned, a comparison with the interception rate of opiates in 1998 (17%), makes the interception rate of 46% reported for cocaine for the same year appear extremely high. Assuming a similar volume of seizures in 1999, the rate would be even higher (50%). For the reasons mentioned above, there are thus some doubts about the accuracy of the total potential cocaine production reported during the past few years (765 mt in 1999).
"Based on seizures and comsumption estimates, UNDCP considers that production might in fact be closer to 1,000 tons."
(In other words, governments make lowball estimates of cocaine production in order to look good.)

Thirteen truck loads of cocaine is enough to satisfy U.S. demand for one year. The United States has 19,924 kilometers of shoreline, 300 ports of entry and more than 7,500 miles of border with Mexico and Canada. Stopping drugs at the borders is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

One of the major problems with supply reduction efforts (source control, interdiction, and domestic enforcement) is that "suppliers simply produce for the market what they would have produced anyway, plus enough extra to cover anticipated government seizures."

To achieve a one percent reduction in U.S. cocaine consumption, the United States could spend an additional $34 million on drug treatment programs, or 23 times as much -- $783 million -- on efforts to eradicate the supply at the source.

"Despite 2 years of extensive herbicide spraying [source country eradication], U.S. estimates show there has not been any net reduction in [Colombian] coca cultivation - net coca cultivation actually increased 50 percent."

In spite of US expenditures of $625 million in counter narcotics operations in Colombia between 1990 and 1998, Colombia was able to surpass Peru and Bolivia to become the world's largest coca producer. Additionally, "there has not been a net reduction in processing or exporting refined cocaine from Colombia or in cocaine availability within the United States."

"... While two major groups (the Medellin and Cali cartels) dominated drug-trafficking activities during the late 1980s and early 1990s, today there are hundreds of smaller and more decentralized organizations. These groups are now capable of producing 'black cocaine' that hinders detection and are improving their transportation capabilities by manufacturing boats capable of carrying up to 2 tons of cocaine at high speeds."

Black cocaine is created by a chemical process used by drug traffickers to evade detection by drug sniffing dogs and chemical tests. The traffickers add charcoal and other chemicals to cocaine, which transforms it into a black substance that has no smell and does not react when subjected to the usual chemical tests.

"The most serious threat of illegal smuggling originates from Afghanistan (heroin and opium). Drugs are smuggled through Central Asia into Russia's domestic market and onwards into Europe. Since the withdrawal of Russian Border Guards from the Tajikistan / Afghanistan border in December 2004 heroin seizures have decreased significantly in all Central Asian States with seizures now the lowest on record since 2001."

"The results of drug purity analysis are not readily available in part due to the fact that drug related sentencing is based on weight rather than other indicators. Nevertheless, some sources point to a continuing low heroin purity level reported in different parts of the country corroborating a trend first reported in 2001."